Mathematical models for the dynamics of alcohol related health risks with changing behavior via cultural beliefs in Tanzania

Maranya M. Mayengo, Moatlhodi Kgosimore, Snehashish Chakraverty, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer, Carmen Caiseda, Gabriel Shirima

Abstract


Alcoholism has continually posed health challenges in many communities for decades. In this paper, a more realistic model for health related risks associated with alcoholism is formulated. It considers a population proportion that has social cultural protection from alcohol consumption. In the context of this paper, such protection emanates from religious beliefs. The Next Generation Matrix (NGM) approach is used to compute the basic risk reproduction number. The risk free equilibrium point is proved to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic risk reproduction is less than unity and unstable otherwise. The sensitivity analysis of the basic risk reproduction number and numerical simulation results reveal that for effective control of the health risk problem in the community, the deliberate intervention strategies and policies should focus on discouraging alcoholic behaviors on its onset during initiation stage than focusing other population proportions already at risk.

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Published: 2020-08-13

How to Cite this Article:

Maranya M. Mayengo, Moatlhodi Kgosimore, Snehashish Chakraverty, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer, Carmen Caiseda, Gabriel Shirima, Mathematical models for the dynamics of alcohol related health risks with changing behavior via cultural beliefs in Tanzania, Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci., 2020 (2020), Article ID 54

Copyright © 2020 Maranya M. Mayengo, Moatlhodi Kgosimore, Snehashish Chakraverty, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer, Carmen Caiseda, Gabriel Shirima. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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