Modeling positive COVID-19 cases in Bandung City by means geographically weighted regression

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rocked the world since the beginning of 2020, Indonesia is no exception. Bandung, as one of the metropolitan cities and one of the largest cities in West Java, has been exposed to the virus since early March 2020, among the impacts is the occurrence of panic buying, mass unemployment due to layoffs, and increased crime rates. The statistical analysis used for modeling the number of COVID-19 cases is the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. The GWR model is the development of a linear regression model that produces local model parameter estimators for each observation location. The aim of the study was to model the number of COVID-19 cases in the period of March to June 4, 2020, in Bandung. The results showed that variations in the variable population size, distance to the capital city, number of ODP, number of PDP, and number of health facilities in the GWR model were able to explain variations in the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in Bandung City.