Bayesian approach in modelling cholera outbreak in Ilala municipal council, Tanzania

Yohana Maiga Marwa, Samuel Mwalili, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata

Abstract


In this paper, we consider a deterministic susceptible-infected-removed-bacteria (SIR-B) cholera epidemic model with water treatment as a control strategy. The infected compartments are divided into two classes namely; symptomatic infected and asymptomatic infected individuals in order to observe the contribution of vibrio cholerae to the environment from each compartment. The main objective of this paper is to validate the model using Ilala municipal council data. We estimate the model parameters using least square and Bayesian approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The sample of 10,000 number of simulations was carried out in MCMC run to study the behaviour of each parameter in the proposed model. The results show that the parameters have good convergence, the dynamic behaviour of prediction fits the observed data.

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How to Cite this Article:

Yohana Maiga Marwa, Samuel Mwalili, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata, Bayesian approach in modelling cholera outbreak in Ilala municipal council, Tanzania, Journal of Mathematical and Computational Science, Vol 9, No 1 (2019), 73-86

Copyright © 2019 Yohana Maiga Marwa, Samuel Mwalili, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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