Skip to content
Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience ISSN 2052-2541

Archives › Volume 2020 (2020)

Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci. 2020 (2020), Article ID 1

Bifurcation analysis in a serogroup a meningococcal infection model

Alpha Oumar Bah, Mountaga Lam, Alassane Bah, Samuel Bowong

PDF (1.6 MB) https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/3760

Abstract

A mathematical model is formulated that enables the understanding of the dynamics of the transmission of serogroup A meningococcal (MenA) infection. We provide the theoretical analysis of the model. We compute the basic reproduction number R0 and shows that the outcome of the disease depends on a threshold parameter ξ. More precisely, we show that when R0 ≤ ξ, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, while when ξ ≤ R0 ≤ 1, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, when a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria. Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed in order to determine the impact of related parameters on meningitis outbreak. Random perturbation of the vaccine efficacy was performed to gain insight into the role of the vaccine efficacy on the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations, which further suggest that the control of the epidemic of MenA pass through a combination of a large coverage vaccination of young susceptible individuals and the production of a vaccine with a high level of efficacy.

Published
2 January 2020
Volume
2020 (2020)
License
CC BY 3.0

Copyright © 2020 Alpha Oumar Bah, Mountaga Lam, Alassane Bah, Samuel Bowong. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cite this article

A. O. Bah, M. Lam, A. Bah, S. Bowong, Bifurcation analysis in a serogroup a meningococcal infection model, Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci. 2020 (2020), 1. https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/3760

BibTeX
@article{Bah2020,
  author  = {Bah, Alpha Oumar and Lam, Mountaga and Bah, Alassane and Bowong, Samuel},
  title   = {Bifurcation analysis in a serogroup a meningococcal infection model},
  journal = {Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci.},
  volume  = {2020},
  year    = {2020},
  pages   = {1},
  doi     = {10.28919/cmbn/3760}
}