Mathematical models for the dynamics of alcohol related health risks with changing behavior via cultural beliefs in Tanzania

Abstract

Alcoholism has continually posed health challenges in many communities for decades. In this paper, a more realistic model for health related risks associated with alcoholism is formulated. It considers a population proportion that has social cultural protection from alcohol consumption. In the context of this paper, such protection emanates from religious beliefs. The Next Generation Matrix (NGM) approach is used to compute the basic risk reproduction number. The risk free equilibrium point is proved to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic risk reproduction is less than unity and unstable otherwise. The sensitivity analysis of the basic risk reproduction number and numerical simulation results reveal that for effective control of the health risk problem in the community, the deliberate intervention strategies and policies should focus on discouraging alcoholic behaviors on its onset during initiation stage than focusing other population proportions already at risk.