Mathematical models for aflatoxin contamination in crops, livestock and humans: A review

Abstract

Aflatoxin is among the highest-threatening food contaminants as it affects both the health of consumers and the entire value chain. Researchers are of the view that aflatoxin contamination will increase due to the impacts of climate change. This study aimed to review studies on modelling the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin contamination to gain a deeper understanding of the progress achieved, methodologies used and potential gaps or opportunities for further studies. A critical analysis of the available literature revealed that aflatoxin contamination is a spatial-temporal phenomenon as it depends on both location and time. In many regions, data unavailability has been an obstacle in developing predictive models. We note that it is necessary for each region to have their own models according to the crop, soil characteristics and projected climate of the given area for better and more accurate results.  Future studies should focus on the first; surveillance of susceptible crops and gathering of aflatoxin contamination data. Second, developing models to assess the aflatoxin contamination risk due to projected climate change, soil properties, and crop characteristics so that proper strategies can be adopted. Third, laboratory experimental results must be validated in fields to increase their usability.