Simulating models for the transmission dynamics of a novel corona virus under the administration of an imperfect vaccine in Nigeria

Abstract

The spread of corona virus disease (COVID-19) to over 210 countries has resulted in a pandemic which has continued to generate severe public health concern and socio-economic burden worldwide. This study investigated the impact of some control strategies (face mask usage, social distancing and contact tracing) on the dynamics of Corona virus in the Nigerian population. A mathematical model was developed and analyzed to also examine the impact of an imperfect vaccine on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 disease. The model was shown to be both locally and globally asymptotically stable. The model was extended to explore a relationship between vaccination rate and transmission dynamics of the disease. Numerical simulations suggest that an implementation of an effective face mask strategy as well as social distancing will greatly control community transmission. Also, widespread random testing could help in detecting, tracing and isolating symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, thereby reducing the transmission by contacts. More testing would imply an increase in the number of detected cases as well as prompt isolation of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, thereby reducing community transmission. Furthermore, a simulation was done to measure the population impact level when an imperfect vaccine is administered. The simulation showed that corona virus burden in terms of the cumulative number of deaths, decreases with an increasing vaccine rate, and that, if the vaccine efficacy confers 70% protection and a large proportion of the susceptible class is vaccinated, then, it would have led to the elimination of the disease within a short period of time. However, if the vaccine efficacy level confers 10% to 40% protection against the disease, then it is not sufficient to curtail the disease in the near future.