A design of governmental policies for the eradication of COVID-19 in Jakarta using an SIR-type mathematical model

Abstract

Using a discretised version of our recently-developed SIR-type mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19, we construct a design of governmental policies for the eradication of the disease in the province of DKI Jakarta, Indonesia, taking as a basis the actual data of mid-2021. The design takes the form of a precise, quantitative method to determine the appropriate level(s) of restrictions on community activities (PPKM) which should be enforced in the province on any given day, based on the current values of the disease’s effective reproduction number and the hospitals’ bed-occupancy rate.