Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of cholera epidemic

Yohana Maiga Marwa, Samuel Mwalili, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata

Abstract


Several mathematical models have been designed to understand the dynamics of cholera epidemic from which some models considered direct and indirect transmission. In this study a system of ordinary differential equations is developed by splitting the class of infected individuals into symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals with the incorporation of water treatment as a control strategy. Theoretically, the developed model is analysed by studying the stability of equilibrium points. The results of the analysis shows that there exist a locally stable disease free equilibrium point, $E^{0}$ when $R_{0}<1$ and endemic equilibrium, $E^{*}$ when $R_{0}>1$. Numerically, the identifiability of parameters is done by least square and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Both methods are used as tools to analyze the developed model. The results show that the parameters are identifiable.

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How to Cite this Article:

Yohana Maiga Marwa, Samuel Mwalili, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata, Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of cholera epidemic, Journal of Mathematical and Computational Science, Vol 8, No 5 (2018), 584-610

Copyright © 2018 Yohana Maiga Marwa, Samuel Mwalili, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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