Modelling the Ebola virus disease dynamics in the presence of interfered interventions

Abstract

The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been difficult to eradicate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the presence of war and political instability which stand in the way of disease control, such as; hospitalization, vaccination, construction and successful running of EVD treatment units and proper functioning of intervention teams in some parts of the country. Interrupted control usually leads to an increase in disease transmission, hence making eradication very difficult or even impossible. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model for EVD dynamics in the presence of war. the model’s steady states are determined. The model has an Ebola free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium whose existence is subject to the epidemic threshold R(ω) that is a function interference parameter. The global stabilities of the equilibria are determined. We fit this model to observed data and evaluate the impact of war on EVD evolution and make suggestions that may influence policy direction in the management of EVD epidemic. Our results quantify the negative effects of war on EVD control, thus presenting the usefulness of mathematical models in disease management.