Impact of large scale social restriction on the COVID-19 cases in East Java

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19. The Indonesian government and local governments have issued several guidelines to limit the spread of cases that spread across people in the form of restrictions on physical activity between people. One of the guidelines is large-scale social restrictions (PSBB). PSBB is being implemented in several regions of Indonesia with high COVID-19 cases, including Jakarta, West Java and East Java. Recently, East Java became a province with the highest number of daily new cases, reaching more than 300 reported cases in one day. Some time ago, several regions in Indonesia stopped PSBB policy and took the direction of the New Normal, including East Java. This study suggests machine learning methods that are recognized based on high accuracy, containing Extreme Learning Machines, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Auto-Regressive Neural Networks to predict the number of daily new, active, confirmed, recovered, and death cases. The MLP (10,10) model was obtained as the best model for predicting the five case variables in East Java for the next 7 days. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the cases in East Java are still increasing. According to this study, the application of the PSBB and the abolition of the PSBB directive, which was replaced by the New Normal directive, had a significant impact on the increase in cases in the East Java region. This is in line with the estimation results, which show that cases in East Java tend to increase with fluctuating new daily cases.