Stability analysis of a nonlinear mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics

Abstract

The whole world had been plagued by the COVID-19 pandemic. It was first detected in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019, and has then spread worldwide. It has affected each one of us in the worst possible way. In the current study, a differential equation-based mathematical model is proposed. The present model highlights the infection dynamics of the COVID-19 spread taking hospitalization into account. The basic reproduction number is calculated. This is a crucial indicator of the outcome of the COVID-19 dynamics. Local stability of the equilibrium points has been studied. Global stability of the model is proven using the Lyapunov second method and the LaSalle invariance principle. Sensitivity analysis of the model is performed to distinguish the factor responsible for the faster spread of the infection. Finally, the theoretical aspects have been corroborated via numerical simulations performed for various initial conditions and different values of the parameters.