Mitigation of climate change due to excessive carbon dioxide emission and accumulation: a mathematical model approach

Abstract

One of the current phenomena causing a global emergency is climate change. This change is attributed to various human activities that release greenhouse gases in great amount into our environment. The most crucial and abundant of these gases is carbon dioxide. Excessive emission and accumulation of this gas has negatively affected various sectors of life. Some of the consequences of this climate change as result of excessive emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide are flooding, drought, wildlife migration, disease outbreak, to mention but a few. This research study proposes a deterministic compartmental model of mitigating against excessive emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Hence, we considered dynamics involving the following variables: photosynthetic biomass density, good conservation policies, enlightenment programmes, as well as direct air capture technology. Based on the model assumptions, the model equations of five compartments were formulated. A threshold quantity analogous to other quantities like the Basic Reproduction, Consumption Number, Predation Number, called the Concentration Number that determines the danger of excessive concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was obtained using the idea of Next Generation Matrix. Local stability analysis of the equilibrium points obtained was carried out. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis was done using the Concentration Number and through this, key parameters that influence the dynamics of the model were identified. Finally, numerical simulations were done to find out the effect of each mitigation measure and their combinations in reducing the excess accumulated concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. From the findings, combining effectively mitigation measures such as good conservation policies, enlightenment programmes and direct air capture technology with an improved photosynthetic biomass density would greatly reduce the excess accumulated concentration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.