Mathematical modelling approach for the study of Nipah virus disease transmission dynamics

Abstract

Ever since the first outbreak of Nipah virus disease, which occurred both in human and non-human primates in developing countries in Far East Asian between 1998 and 1999 which led to a majority of deaths, with the effect of such occurrence still witnessed up till date. We studied the spread of Nipah virus and obtained a system of equations comprising of ten equations which effectively described the transmission of Nipah Virus in a population where control measures were incorporated and two major sources of contacting the disease which are coming in contact with contaminated foods by infected bats from crop farming and pig farming, these were also incorporated. We investigated the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium using the Jacobian Matrix approach and the disease- endemic stability using the center manifold theorem. We also investigated the global stability of the equilibrium points using the LaSalle’s invariant principle. The results showed that the diseasefree and endemic equilibrium where both locally and globally Stable and we established a population immunity threshold for our model, with available data from the recent outbreak. Numerical simulations were carried out and our graphs show that vaccination and treatment are best for the infectious population to avoid further disease spread in the population and have quicker and better recovery.