Analyzing and estimating parameters of COVID-19 transmission with vaccination in Indonesia

Abstract

This study analyzes the Susceptibles Infected Recovered Death (SIRD) epidemic model of COVID-19 transmission by considering vaccination in Indonesia. The SIRD epidemic mathematical model divided the population into four compartments, including susceptible compartment, infected compartment, recovered compartment, and death compartment. The model is analyzed for stability of disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The basic reproduction number corresponding to the stability of the model is determined. The parameters of the model are estimated from COVID-19 data in Indonesia by using the least squares method. The effect of vaccination on infection cases is examined using multiple linear regression. Based on the analytical results and numerical simulations show that the endemic endemic equilibrium point is stable. The basic reproduction is obtained R₀=2. It can be concluded that the disease is spreading in the population which means there are infected individuals in the population although models suggest that the vaccine reduces transmission rates in the population.