The Gamma-Poisson conjugate hierarchical model on the mortality rate of dengue fever cases in Indonesia

Abstract

Infectious dengue can be lethal if not treated immediately and effectively. To comprehend the illness and treat it, a thorough epidemiological investigation is required to ascertain the distribution pattern of dengue mortality utilizing hierarchical models. A hierarchical model is a data-driven model that depicts the relationship between groups of distributions that are thought of as samples of the original population distribution and their variations from the projected population distribution. Data on dengue fever infections and deaths were gathered for this study from the Indonesian Health Profile in 2021. The researchers utilized a hierarchical conjugate Gamma-Poisson distribution model to investigate Indonesia's dengue deaths. This distribution offers a more suitable statistical framework for analyzing variation in mortality data, which is occasionally poorly distributed. The number of cases and fatalities is among the data used, ranging for the provinces in Indonesia. The outcomes demonstrated that this distribution could describe a more precise picture of the pattern of dengue fever fatalities. The results can be applied to bolster preventative initiatives in each province with the most significant death rates and to enhance planning for health programs. In addition, applying the conjugate Gamma-Poisson distribution in the study of dengue mortality may provide a more substantial basis for future research in this area, which may contribute to better disease control and decreased dengue mortality in Indonesia.