Parameters estimation of a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in East Java Province using the deep learning method

Bayu Setiawan, Anita Triska, Nursanti Anggriani

Abstract


Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is a respiratory disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus which has spread throughout the world and becomes a pandemic in 2020. The spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia is fluctuating depend on people's habits and government policies which results in the time-dependent parameters. In this study, the spread of Covid-19 is analyzed by using a mathematical model through a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) which its parameters change respect to time. This study focuses on the time-dependent parameters which are estimated using the Deep Learning method based on the Covid-19 data from East Java Province, Indonesia. Furthermore, numerical simulation results of the model with time-dependent parameters are compared to numerical simulation results which use constant parameters. It is found that the simulation results of the model with time-dependent parameters are closer to the data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is 3.68%, while the model with constant parameters had a MAPE value as 24.5%.

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Published: 2024-02-02

How to Cite this Article:

Bayu Setiawan, Anita Triska, Nursanti Anggriani, Parameters estimation of a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in East Java Province using the deep learning method, Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci., 2024 (2024), Article ID 14

Copyright © 2024 Bayu Setiawan, Anita Triska, Nursanti Anggriani. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci.

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