Parameters estimation of a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in East Java Province using the deep learning method

Abstract

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is a respiratory disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus which has spread throughout the world and becomes a pandemic in 2020. The spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia is fluctuating depend on people's habits and government policies which results in the time-dependent parameters. In this study, the spread of Covid-19 is analyzed by using a mathematical model through a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) which its parameters change respect to time. This study focuses on the time-dependent parameters which are estimated using the Deep Learning method based on the Covid-19 data from East Java Province, Indonesia. Furthermore, numerical simulation results of the model with time-dependent parameters are compared to numerical simulation results which use constant parameters. It is found that the simulation results of the model with time-dependent parameters are closer to the data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is 3.68%, while the model with constant parameters had a MAPE value as 24.5%.