A mathematical model to provide insights into food-borne Nipah virus infectious disease transmission dynamics

Abstract

This study extends the SEIR model to 16 compartments (S_H, S_V, S_HW, E_H, E_HT, I_H, I_HT, I_Hi, R_H, S_P, S_PV, I_P, I_PT, R_P, S_B, I_B) to analyze Nipah virus (NiV) transmission dynamics. We computed the basic reproductive number (R₀) and investigated local stability of the disease-free equilibrium using the Jacobian Matrix, and diseaseendemic stability with the center manifold theorem. Global stability was assessed using LaSalle’s Invariant Principle, and sensitivity analysis was performed. Our results indicated that disease-free and endemic equilibria are locally and globally stable, with the system showing a forward bifurcation. Simulations enhanced understanding of NiV’s long-term behavior. We established a critical threshold of 12.2374 for the rate of consumption of NiVcontaminated food items (Λ_HW), beyond which the disease could escalate uncontrollably. Graphical simulations suggested that, in a food community of 1,558,025 individuals, the number consuming contaminated food should not exceed 12 to prevent virus spread. These insights can guide policymakers in developing targeted NiV control strategies. Sensitivity analysis identified key parameters affecting R₀: the exposed rate (β₁) and the modification parameter for decreased human infectiousness (n₀), both with significant economic implications. By focusing on these parameters, developing countries can implement initiatives to mitigate NiV spread and its economic impact. Our model offers a foundation for targeted intervention strategies.