Modeling the effects of treatment on alcohol abuse in Kenya incorporating mass media campaign

Abstract

The harmful use of alcohol causes a large burden with respect to diseases, social and economic problems to the society. Alcoholism is a serious problem in Kenya today. Many adults are addicted to alcohol. Mass media campaigns against alcohol acts as sources of information to halt alcohol abuse and its potential harmful effects. In this research we developed a deterministic models for alcohol abuse driven by the light and heavy drinkers taking into consideration the influence of pre -exposure to mass media campaigns. A model is developed with perfect pre-exposure campaigns. The model is analyzed through the determination of the model’s steady states and it’s respective stabilities analysis in terms of the alcohol abuse reproduction numbers R0. The analysis shown that alcohol free equilibrium (AFE) was locally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and unstable if R0 > 1. Numerical simulations were carried out o determine where the campaigns should be targeted for effective control of the abuse.The results from the simulations illustrated that increase in the rate of treatment reduces the number of alcohol addicts in the community. The model was validated using data from rehabilitation centers in Kenya. The implication of the results to policy makers is that alcohol treatment should be emphasized.