Trend analysis of price inflation on maize in Mekelle City, Ethiopia

Abstract

The major endeavor of this research paper is to demonstrate the time series analysis of price inflation of maize in Mekelle city. The statistical technique that we have applied to investigate the data is time series analysis. Consequently, time series method that would use to test stationarity by using Dickey-Fuller Test and Stationary during differencing (second order differencing). By using R software the comprehension of time series analysis, trend analysis, and Box-Jenkins models are made for this data. A total of 60 months of price inflation of maize was incorporated in this study. From the Box-Jenkins model evaluation, the ARIMA (2,2,1) was found the preeminent model. AIC method of evaluation was applied to select the preeminent model from the alternative and also considering Box-Jenkins methodology monthly retail prices were forecasted for one year. The outcomes be evidence for that the trend of price inflation of maize is fragment like (constant). In conclusion, the studies guide to forecasting the price inflation of maize of year 2019 G.C.