The application of ARIMA model to analyze COVID-19 incidence pattern in several countries

Jacques Demongeot, Kayode Oshinubi, Mustapha Rachdi, Lahoucine Hobbad, Mohamed Alahiane, Siham Iggui, Jean Gaudart, Idir Ouassou

Abstract


The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread and already shows a recurrence in many countries, despite several social distancing and vaccination measures implemented all around the world. Epidemiological data are available, and we use the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to analyze incidence pattern and to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Morocco, France, Italy, Spain and USA, using daily reported cumulative cases data from Worldometers, and we report 5-day and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative cases and check a posteriori the precision of this forecasting, by confronting it to the real data observed. In the discussion, we propose a link between the ARIMA, elevation and average temperature in several countries’ modelling approaches, for allowing the comparison between their explicative abilities.

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Published: 2021-11-22

How to Cite this Article:

Jacques Demongeot, Kayode Oshinubi, Mustapha Rachdi, Lahoucine Hobbad, Mohamed Alahiane, Siham Iggui, Jean Gaudart, Idir Ouassou, The application of ARIMA model to analyze COVID-19 incidence pattern in several countries, J. Math. Comput. Sci., 12 (2022), Article ID 10

Copyright © 2022 Jacques Demongeot, Kayode Oshinubi, Mustapha Rachdi, Lahoucine Hobbad, Mohamed Alahiane, Siham Iggui, Jean Gaudart, Idir Ouassou. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

 

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