Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in Morocco and the impact of controlling measures

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may be introduced into a population through arrival passengers outside the host population. The development of mathematical models is used to forecast, evaluate, and attempt to control the spread of diseases. In this paper, a new epidemiological model with seven compartments that include passengers is constructed to describe the COVID-19 dynamic in Morocco. The most common parameter is the reproduction number R₀ which determines whether a disease will die out or expand. The sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to discover which parameter has a high impact on R₀. The final size relation for the epidemic models was derived to find its relationship with the reproduction number. Some parameter values are estimated by fitting the COVID-19 data in Morocco, which is considered from 2^nd March to 19^th July 2020. Finally, we verified the importance of testing and awareness of the community to break the spread of Coronavirus disease.