Modelling the impact of different health care systems and dropouts on the infection dynamics of HIV/AIDS

Abstract

Side effects from antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) over time, present a major challenge to individuals on treatment and is a major cause of dropouts from treatment programs. The provision of treatment for infected individuals varies depending on their levels of affordability in many developing countries. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model to determine the impact of dropouts on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS which depends on different health care systems. We categorize the health care systems into two, private and public with the dropout rates being dependent on the health care system. The model’s steady states are determined and their stabilities presented in terms of the reproduction number R₀. Numerical simulations are carried out and results suggest that the management of dropouts is significant to the dynamics and management of HIV/AIDS. The role of essential parameters is also investigated through sensitivity analysis that employs the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The results have implications to the management and policy designs with regards to health care systems, dropouts and disease progression.