Economic impact of epidemics: mathematical model and dynamical analysis

Abstract

The predicament of the economic health and human capital of any nation in the wake of an epidemic requires further studies to better handle both. Scientific research can assist in developing measures for managing an epidemic without generating substantial economic shocks because mitigation strategies, while helpful in controlling an outbreak, may also pose significant economic challenges. To this effect, we have constructed a six-compartment epidemic-economic model wherein the population is classified into four different classes: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. The other two compartments are for mitigation level and economic development level. Existence of disease free and endemic equilibrium points, as well as the prerequisites for both their local and global stability have been attained. We have conducted a numerical simulation by using a feasible set of parameters to bolster our analytical findings. An analysis of the local sensitivity of the reproduction number provides insight into potential epidemic management strategies. According to our findings, if immunisations are given, less intensive mitigation measures can not only successfully lower the number of infectives but can also be beneficial to the economy. We have conducted a numerical simulation by using a feasible set of parameters to bolster our analytical findings.