Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for the dynamic modeling of Lassa fever

Abstract

In this work, we analyze the effective control of Lassa fever in a given population by formulating and analyzing a nonlinear optimal control problem. We extend an existing deterministic mathematical model to include four control variables namely educational campaign, condom usage, treatment care, and reduction of rodents. Using Pontryagin’s maximal principle, we established the necessary conditions for the existence of optimal control. We use the fourth-order Runge Kutta forward-backward sweep approach to simulate the optimality system in order to demonstrate the impact of various combinations of controls on the spread of Lassa fever. A cost-effectiveness study is carried out to inform the public about the best cost-effective technique among several control combinations. The results suggest that, of all the combinations considered in this study, the combination of preventative tactics through educational campaigns and rodent reduction in the environment is the most cost-effective.