Mathematical model analysis and control of cassava mosaic and cassava brown streak co-infection

Abstract

Cassava is a major staple crop that contributes significantly to food security and economic development in many countries especially in Nigeria. However, its production is severely threatened by Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD), which can result in significant yield losses. Cassava Mosaic disease (CMD) and Cassava Brown Streak disease (CBSD) co-infections is one of the most destructive infections of cassava that can lead to 90% yield loss if not controlled. In this study, a mathematical model that considered the co-infection of CMD and CBSD is use to analyse the dynamics and control of the co-infections. The model is formulated using a system of non-linear differential equations and then transformed into a non-dimensional form to facilitate mathematical analysis and numerical computation. The mathematical analysis of the model which is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the model are carried out accordingly. To enhance the biological relevance of the model, real-world data obtained from World Bank dataset and related agricultural datasets were utilized for model calibration. Unknown model parameters were estimated using the least-squares fitting technique, enabling the model to reproduce observed disease trends. The estimated parameter values were then employed to investigate the future dynamics of CMD-CBSD co-infection through predictive simulations. In addition, numerical experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of various disease control strategies, including interventions targeting infected plants and vector populations.