Investigating the different variety effects for plant disease transmission under bioinsecticide and roguing interventions: a mathematical modeling study

Abstract

A severe malady of soybean plants, called mosaic disease, can lower both the quality and quantity of soybean production. This disease can be transmitted by Aphis, a vector that carries the Soybean Mosaic Virus (SMV). This study constructs a deterministic model to represent its transmission mechanism and analyze the phenomenon. The model includes a bioinsecticide utilization mechanism to suppress the vector population and considers the roguing effort to reduce the risk of further infection of other plants. In addition, plant variety is investigated to explore the different effects of disease transmission based on the number of healthy plants at the harvesting period. Dynamical system theory is utilized to obtain the equilibrium solutions and their stability. The basic reproduction number (\(\mathfrak{R}_{0}\)) for this model is obtained using the next-generation matrix method, and it is used to explore the existence of bifurcations. Next, a sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal the most influential factor in suppressing the disease. An optimal control study is conducted by applying three interventions, such as bioinsecticides, roguing, and preventive plant treatment, resulting in eight scenarios. Finally, numerical simulation is used to confirm the results of the analysis and provide dynamic predictions along the observation period. This study identifies a threshold number for implementing a control scenario based on the level of resistance, which is represented by the soybean variety.