Modeling dengue disease transmission for juvenile in Bandung, Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue disease is the most common mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world, especially in Bandung, Indonesia. Juvenile age group is important to be considered in dengue management since the number of cases in this age group is significantly increasing year by year especially in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. Another concern to pay special attention to this age group is because dengue infection among juveniles shall hinder their growing process and influence their academic achievement at schools. Apart from that, it will lower parents’ productivity as they have to be absent from work, and they have to spend expenses for medication. One of the effective and efficient strategies to prevent the transmission is by analysing the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue disease incidence and its trend. In this study, the random effect Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) is applied and numerical Bayesian method through Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is used. The models are applied to dengue disease incidence in year 2013 for the juvenile group in Bandung.