Transmission dynamics of yellow fever with toxic infected population

Abstract

Yellow fever is currently affecting the African subcontinent, with Ghana accounting for the majority of confirmed cases (37.7%). As infections resurface in regions that have been free of yellow fever for more than a decade, it has become crucial to develop a mathematical model that accurately represents the transmission dynamics of yellow fever within a toxic infected population. The analysis of the existence and stability of the models’ equilibrium points is conducted. The sensitivity index study revealed that a, β₁, β₂, Λ, γ were the most sensitive parameters influencing the spread of yellow fever. The model is numerically solved using MATLAB ODE45 to determine its epidemiological implications. Preventing the advancement from infected (I_H) to toxic infected (D_H) individuals is essential, necessitating prompt intervention; hence, to mitigate the spread, it is imperative to decrease the contact rate between D_H and the susceptible individuals. The dynamics of D_H emphasize the significance of focusing on severe cases, for controlling outbreaks. Also, the stabilization phase of infected vectors suggests that measures aimed at vector reproduction or mortality may help limit the spread over time.